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CHAMPS
BOWL 2007 Dec.
28 . 5:00 pm. Orlando, FL. (12/27) PODCAST: ES PREVIEW OF CHAMPS BOWL (mp3) Tickets available: link here Line
from Vegas: Boston College by 3 1/2 Team and individual stats (NCAA Rank):
TEAM STATISTICS BC OPP -------------------------------------------------------- SCORING....................... 372 264 Points Per Game............. 28.6 20.3 FIRST DOWNS................... 310 242 Rushing..................... 89 69 Passing..................... 199 157 Penalty..................... 22 16 RUSHING YARDAGE............... 1362 886 Yards gained rushing........ 1611 1279 Yards lost rushing.......... 249 393 Rushing Attempts............ 383 396 Average Per Rush............ 3.6 2.2 Average Per Game............ 104.8 68.2 TDs Rushing................. 17 8 PASSING YARDAGE............... 4286 3393 Att-Comp-Int................ 612-368-18 529-316-21 Average Per Pass............ 7.0 6.4 Average Per Catch........... 11.6 10.7 Average Per Game............ 329.7 261.0 TDs Passing................. 28 19 TOTAL OFFENSE................. 5648 4279 Total Plays................. 995 925 Average Per Play............ 5.7 4.6 Average Per Game............ 434.5 329.2 KICK RETURNS: #-YARDS......... 45-877 61-1146 PUNT RETURNS: #-YARDS......... 15-81 24-158 INT RETURNS: #-YARDS.......... 21-211 18-186 KICK RETURN AVERAGE........... 19.5 18.8 PUNT RETURN AVERAGE........... 5.4 6.6 INT RETURN AVERAGE............ 9.6 10.3 FUMBLES-LOST.................. 15-7 18-7 PENALTIES-YARDS............... 90-813 100-743 Average Per Game............ 62.5 57.2 PUNTS-YARDS................... 65-2645 80-3268 Average Per Punt............ 40.7 40.8 Net punt average............ 36.4 38.1 TIME OF POSSESSION/GAME....... 30:52 28:38 3RD-DOWN CONVERSIONS.......... 86/197 81/212 3rd-Down Pct................ 44% 38% 4TH-DOWN CONVERSIONS.......... 11/20 8/22 4th-Down Pct................ 55% 36% SACKS BY-YARDS................ 34-217 19-158 MISC YARDS.................... 0 20 TOUCHDOWNS SCORED............. 49 33 FIELD GOALS-ATTEMPTS.......... 11-17 10-18 ON-SIDE KICKS................. 0-1 0-0 RED-ZONE SCORES............... 44-59 75% 25-35 71% RED-ZONE TOUCHDOWNS........... 34-59 58% 18-35 51% PAT-ATTEMPTS.................. 43-47 91% 32-32 100% ATTENDANCE.................... 293927 251672 Games/Avg Per Game.......... 7/41990 5/50334 Neutral Site Games.......... 1/53212 SCORE BY QUARTERS 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Total -------------------- --- --- --- --- --- Boston College...... 67 116 83 106 - 372 Opponents........... 48 57 61 98 - 264 Last Game: Virginia Tech 30, BC 16 #6 Virginia Tech vs #11 Boston College Virginia Tech Rushing No Gain Loss Net TD Lg Avg Passing Att-Cmp-Int Yds TD Long Sack Receiving No. Yds TD Long Punting No. Yds Avg Long In20 TB Punts Kickoffs Intercept Field goal attempts Kickoffs No. Yds TB OB Avg Boston College Rushing No Gain Loss Net TD Lg Avg Passing Att-Cmp-Int Yds TD Long Sack Receiving No. Yds TD Long Punting No. Yds Avg Long In20 TB Punts Kickoffs Intercept Field goal attempts Kickoffs No. Yds TB OB Avg Big Ten
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Weather
forecast: Prediction wire: ES
Prediction: MSU 37, BC 35. Mind you BC quarterback Matt Ryan will throw for 1,000 yards against MSU. The ES predicts 35 points -- expect all five TDs through the air. BC's attack is off balance and heavy on the pass, and MSU will need to find a way to force Ryan into an errant throw or two. But, MSU's best defense will be its offense: if it can use its running game to control the clock and keep Ryan off the field, it has a great shot to control the game. Expect BC to slow down the MSU running game, but not stop it. MSU's offensive balance will be the difference in this game. It will be a shoot out, but the Spartans ability to confuse BC with the run-pass mix, and with effective downfield targets, will be enough to score when the chips are down. MD has kept MSU in every game this year, and it will be no different here. MSU's Brian Hoyer needs to be able to play well to move the ball and make the pass -- much as he did vs Purdue and the second half vs Joe Pa. He needs to be effective by getting the ball to Devin Thomas, Davis, Dell, et al, to make it efficient vs a tough BC defense. On third downs, Hoyer has to convert to move the ball. A big time kick return by Devin Thomas, or a fake kick/punt, would be a bonus. You may see more of Thomas running the ball as well as an option off his motion. Watch a back-and-forth affair all game long, with a big game by the Javon Ringer-Jehuu Caulcrick tandem (150+ yards on the ground). MSU MUST be deliberate and continue to feed the run... even if just 3 yards a carry. It's MSU's bread and butter: as the game wears on, eventually Caulcrick and Ringer will break big gains. It will force BC's Silva take a step or two up to stop the run, and for Hoyer to drop the deep ball into Thomas. That will be the difference... MSU will make the last score of the game to notch the victory. MSU 37, BC 35. CBS
Sportsline: Darst,
Harmon, Horowitz, JR: BC. Dodd: MSU ESPN: preview. Yahoo: Bowden, Funston, Hughes, Hughuein: BC. Rivals: Hughuein, Buchanan, Megargee, King: BC. Analysis: BC Offense vs. MSU Defense The defensive backfield for MSU has had its ups and downs, and for its downs for the most part this season. In Big Ten play, MSU's best defensive effort was giving up 24 points to Ohio State; and MSU surrendered 30 points five times. It will have its hands full with Heisman contender Matt Ryan of the Eagles. However, MSU's best pass defense all year has been its pass rush, most specifically from St Dic and Baldwin. If they can force Ryan inside, hopefully they'll be able to get a push from OG or LBs Greg Jones/Kaleb Thornhill can make a stop. BC has shown some vulnerability here: Ryan was sacked 19 times this year, including five times by Clemson (win, 20-17) and four by Maryland (loss, 35-42). But, BC has become a one-dimensional offense in the latter half of the year, not running for more than 93 yards in each of its last six games; they are averaging just 2.5 yards per run in those games, with 150 carries for 377 total yards. In the last six weeks, Ryan has basically thrown around 50 passes a game: 53 att-53-56-47-43-52. That's a lot of passing. His favorite target is RB Andre Callendar -- also the team's leading rusher (199-936 rush, 72-705 rec). Sophomore Rich Gunnell (5-10, 205) is second on the team with 58 catches for 793 yds. Bottom line - The BC passing game will put pressure on MSU DBs, and it seems that is all they have left. Interesting stat: MSU's third down defense has improved over the season. In the last four games, MSU has given up 2-13; 3-13; 4-13; 6-17. That is an impressive 15-56, or 27%. Holding BC to under 40% on third down could prove the key to victory. MSU Rush Offense vs. BC Defense MSU's rushing game will go up against a stout Eagle defense, leading the nation by giving up just 68 yards per game on the ground. The most successful run game by BC opponents this year was by Maryland, rushing for 135 yards on 40 carries in its upset win over BC. The only other team to run for over 100 yards was Virginia Tech in their first meeting, the amazing 14-10 last minute BC come back win, in which VTU ran for 116 on 41 carries. In BCs three losses to Fl State, Maryland, and Va Tech, the opponents have combined for 117 rushes for 314 yards, just 2.7 yards per clip. This Jamie Silva (5-11, 210) kid is their leader, he is a Free Safety and is up for the defensive player of the year in college football. He has 115 tackles, 6 INTs, 4 tackles for loss, and 2 forced fumbles. He steps up into the play to provide solid run defense support. Both Jehuu Caulcrick and Javon Ringer will have to find a way to bounce around or through the BC front four. The Spartans have run for at least 140 yards in 10 of its 11 games; the lone exception a 59-yard performance against #1 Ohio State. Since that game, MSU has run for 160 (Iowa) -191 (scUM) -150 (Purdue) - 145 (JoePa), its average yards per rush was 3.1-4.4-2.8-3.7, and, it has notched two wins against two losses. What IS telling about these four games is that MSU has forced the run even in difficult situations -- the Spartans late in the season committed itself to running the ball regardless of the situation... one can argue that is why they were a suprisingly successful team in the Big Ten. Using the bruising Caulcrick and the swift Ringer have provided the balance to the offense that makes MSU dangerous. The balance is evident late in games over the last four contests, when MSU in the 4th quarter has held the ball no less than 8:14 (out of 15 minutes): 8:14, 9:11, 10:15, 8:52. An interesting fold in the offense occurred earlier this year, when the Spartans used Devin Thomas out of the backfield after placing him in motion; Hoyer would hand him the ball in an Air Force-type offensive scheme. Against Indiana, Northwestern and Wisconsin, Thomas had 16 carries. However, the last four games, Thomas has run the ball a total of 5 times. If MSU can run the ball inside effectively with Caulcrick, running Thomas may be a nice change up take advantage of a BC defense stacking things up along the interior. Clearly, when MSU can run the ball -- it opens up the passing game. MSU has as balanced of an offensive attack as any team in the country. MSU Pass Offense vs BC Defense Alex Albright (6-5, 235) leads BC in sacks with 8.5 this year; Nick Larkin (6-4, 241) has six. Both are light defensive ends, quick on their feet. Depending on whether or not MSU can catch Silva stepping up on a play action pass could be the difference in getting Hoyer to throw the deep ball to Thomas for a big play or two. If you take a look at the video below, you can see Silva get beat on the deep ball vs VTU... and MSU's passing attack is clearly more potent than the Hokies. How potent are MSU receivers? Let's see how MSU top two receivers fared in the last four games: WR Devin Thomas 9-139, 7-65, 10-116, 7-139; and, TE Kellen Davis, 3-43, 4-47, 3-47, 4-106. Clearly, the passing offense is now running through these two receivers; and, it has been extremely effective. No reason to think this won't be the case against BC. MSU would benefit from the emergene of a third receiver: Mark Dell, Terry Love, and Deon Curry are competing for that third option -- with Dell the only one of the three with at least one catch in each of the last four games. Thomas may be matched up against BC's best corner, DeJuan Tribble, a 5-9, 190-lb senior named Second Team All-ACC despite an injury that forced him to miss the last four games. Tribble sprained his MCL vs Florida State and his status is questionable. Before his injury, Tribble had 4 INTs and 8 pass break ups. Listed on the depth chart instead of Tribble is freshman DeLeon Gause (5-11, 179-lbs) or senior Taji Morris (5-9, 189). Either would present a matchup problem with the taller and physical Thomas (6-2, 218-lbs). The BC secondary was burned for 3 TDs and 202 yards on 22-31 passing in the ACC title game vs Va Tech; and, against Maryland, the Terps burned BC on 21-27 passing for 337yards and 3 TDs. Clearly, this is a weakness that can be exploited. If MSU's run game has any success, it will force Silva to take a step up and allow the deep throw to Thomas or deep mid-field patterns to Davis. This has been very successul for MSU in the last four games. Clip of VT vs BC in ACC title game: watch #44 (Jamie Silva, FS, Sr, 5-11, 210) of BC flying around, making plays... and also out of position and a step late on the 4th Qtr TD pass... Kicking/Return Game The FG kicker, Steve Aponavicius, is 11-17 with a long this year of 45 yards; he is just 4-8 in his last six games. The punter, John Ayers, is nothing special, averaging 40.7 yards per kick this season -- his best game was a 45 yard average, including 5 downed inside the 20 in the last minute comeback win over VTU. Since then, he has tailed off to an under 40 yard average. MSU's punting has been nothing special -- Aaron Bates is an average punter, which is about as good as we could have expected this year. Punt returns from both teams have not been very impressive. BC's kick return game is led by sophomore RB Jeff Smith and junior WR Brandon Robinson -- it is one of the worst in the country on average; but Smith busted a 64 yard return and Robinson a 59 yard return this year. MSU is giving up 21 yards a return, and BC is averaging 19 yards a kick return. Conversely, MSU's Devin Thomas is one of the best returners in the country, and the Spartan return game has been consistently effective. Thomas is averaging 29 yards a return, with a long of 70 this year. BC is giving up 18 yards a return on average, but MSU is averaging 24 a return. This is a big advantage for MSU. BC has had 2 FGs blocked this year; the Eagles have blocked one punt. Similary, MSU has blocked 2 FGs, has had one punt blocked, and has blocked one punt. Coaching BC has a new coach this year, after previous successful coach Tom O'Brien left for NC State. Jeff Jagodzinski returns to Boston College as its 33rd head football coach in 2007, his 15th collegiate season and 23rd overall in coaching. He was the offensive cooordinator for the Green Bay Packers in 2006; but he was previously on the BC staff as an OC in 1997-98. He's been pretty successful in his first year with O'Briens players. Mark Dantonio has been a pleasant surprise for MSU. Early on, MSU blew 5 games losing each game by a TD or less. Two losses occurred in overtime; and last minute losses to Wisconsin and scUM were difficult to muster after the Spartans dominated both games. However, getting the Spartans to focus their energies into victories, a dominating performance at Purdue and a solid second half against #24 Penn State, were surprising. MSU's two November victories were their first in five years. MD was successful at Cincinnati by turning that program around (and evidenced by Cincy's #20 ranking and 10-3 record this year). The Doctor was the defensive coordinator for Ohio State when it last won the national title, and was the defensive coordinator for MSU when it last had any semblance of a defense (under Nick Saban). Give Dantonio and MSU the nod here. Intangibles BC is upset for not earning a BCS bid; but, it's their fault for losing three of their last five games. Still, they have something to prove. BC has won its last seven bowl games (is it due for a loss?). Michigan State has thousands of alumni in Florida that will pack the stadium in Orlando; it will have a fan advantage. MSU is playing in its first bowl game in 5 years. It has something to prove as well. The Spartans get the nod here. BC Players to Watch #2 - WR/KR
- Brandon Robinson MSU Receivers
vs. BC DBs 2007 BC RESULTS (10-3/6-2) Dec 01 -
Virginia Tech 30, BC 16 MSU trails BC, 1-3-1 (.250)
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